🧠 AI’s Gold Rush: Reality Check or Exuberance? (Macro Overview)

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Happy Friday!

AI’s investment boom is still smashing records – but cracks are showing. Nvidia just delivered a jaw-dropping 62% sales surge (a record $57 billion this quarter), and Big Tech is doubling down on multi-billion-dollar AI bets

Let’s break down what’s happening, why it matters, and how you turn all this noise into serious returns.

Shoppers are adding to cart for the holidays

Over the next year, Roku predicts that 100% of the streaming audience will see ads. For growth marketers in 2026, CTV will remain an important “safe space” as AI creates widespread disruption in the search and social channels. Plus, easier access to self-serve CTV ad buying tools and targeting options will lead to a surge in locally-targeted streaming campaigns.

Read our guide to find out why growth marketers should make sure CTV is part of their 2026 media mix.

Learn more.

🔥 What Just Happened (And Why You Should Care)

• Microsoft + Nvidia – committing up to $15 B in Anthropic (OpenAI rival) to bolster AI cloud infrastructure reuters.com.

• Nvidia-led group – buying Aligned Data Centers for $40 B reuters.com, massively expanding critical AI server capacity.

• OpenAI + Broadcom – OpenAI taps Broadcom to develop its first in-house AI chips reuters.com, a bold pivot toward custom silicon.

• AMD + OpenAI – AMD inks a multi-year deal to supply AI chips to OpenAI reuters.com, giving the ChatGPT creator an option for ~10% stake in the chipmaker.

• Oracle + Meta – Oracle is in talks on a $20 B multi-year cloud deal with Meta reuters.com, underscoring red-hot demand for AI data centers.

📈 Where the Smart Money Is Going Right Now

• NVDA – $5 trillion AI chip juggernaut reuters.com delivering 62% sales growth reuters.com, but remains priced for perfection amid bubble chatter.

• AMD – Gaining ground via its OpenAI chip deal reuters.com; a cheaper “picks and shovels” play on AI momentum.

• MSFT – Cloud titan infusing AI across its empire and investing billions in startups like Anthropic reuters.com, offering stability plus upside.

• GOOGL – Search king turned AI powerhouse, pouring $40 B into new Texas data centers reuters.com to fuel its cloud and model-training ambitions.

• ORCL – Enterprise stalwart reinvented as an AI cloud contender, riding secular tailwinds (see potential $20 B Meta deal reuters.com).

• AVGO – Under-the-radar AI supplier (networking chips) now co-developing custom silicon with OpenAI reuters.com; benefiting from surging infrastructure spend.

• PLTR – Big-data turned AI platform with 63% revenue growth last quarter businessinsider.com, but a $422 B valuation after a 28× stock surge businessinsider.com tests investor faith.

Shoppers are adding to cart for the holidays

Over the next year, Roku predicts that 100% of the streaming audience will see ads. For growth marketers in 2026, CTV will remain an important “safe space” as AI creates widespread disruption in the search and social channels. Plus, easier access to self-serve CTV ad buying tools and targeting options will lead to a surge in locally-targeted streaming campaigns.

Read our guide to find out why growth marketers should make sure CTV is part of their 2026 media mix.

Learn more.

🚀 What Kind of Returns Should You Expect?

After 2023–25’s explosive gains, expect strong but more grounded returns ahead. Chipmakers’ growth is decelerating from triple-digit to solid double-digit rates.

Estimates reflect market consensus for price appreciation. High risk comes with high potential reward, while mega-caps offer steadier (if smaller) gains.

⚠️ Risks You Can’t Ignore

• Valuation extremes: Palantir now commands a $422 B market cap after a 28× surge businessinsider.com – bubble red flags abound.

• Concentration risk: Just four customers drove 61% of Nvidia’s revenue reuters.com; any cloud spending pullback could hit hard.

• Crowded trade: Fund managers overwhelmingly call Big Tech AI stocks the most crowded trade, with an “AI bubble” seen as the top tail risk reuters.com.

• Supply strains: Nvidia still can’t make chips fast enough reuters.com – manufacturing bottlenecks (and export curbs) threaten to slow the AI rollout.

Last Time the Market Was This Expensive, Investors Waited 14 Years to Break Even

In 1999, the S&P 500 peaked. Then it took 14 years to gradually recover by 2013.

Today? Goldman Sachs sounds crazy forecasting 3% returns for 2024 to 2034.

But we’re currently seeing the highest price for the S&P 500 compared to earnings since the dot-com boom.

So, maybe that’s why they’re not alone; Vanguard projects about 5%.

In fact, now just about everything seems priced near all time highs. Equities, gold, crypto, etc.

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🔭 What to Watch This Week

• Fed signals: Wednesday’s Fed minutes – the street craves hints of 2024 rate cuts to keep high-growth AI darlings afloat.

• Earnings pulse: Cloud and AI software bellwethers (e.g. Salesforce, Snowflake) report – watch for demand clues and guidance on enterprise AI spend.

• AWS re:Invent: Amazon’s big cloud conference kicks off – expect new AI tool and chip announcements that could shake up the competitive landscape.

💡 Bottom Line

AI investing is a high-stakes balancing act between transformative growth and frothy exuberance. Stay sharp, stick to fundamentals, and ride innovation strategically – the early movers are already compounding.

Start now. Stay informed. Build a balanced, AI-ready portfolio with both upside and discipline.