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$6.5B CoreWeave deal, who actually gets paid, and the AI watchlist.

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Money American
September 26, 2025

Happy Sunday!

This is Money American - your weekly cheat sheet on the hottest AI stocks, top moves, market sentiment, and a curated watchlist to help you ride the upside while managing the risks.

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🔍 Big Themes

  • Oracle–OpenAI cloud mega-spend keeps rippling. Reuters recapped fresh reporting that Oracle is in talks with Meta on a $20B AI cloud deal — one week after WSJ said OpenAI agreed to buy $300B of Oracle compute over ~5 years (Reuters summary is free). Translation: hyperscaler AI capex isn’t slowing. Read more

  • CoreWeave expands its OpenAI pact (again). New $6.5B contract takes 2025 CoreWeave–OpenAI deals to $22.4B, tied to the “Stargate” build-out targeting 10 GW of compute (up to $500B total investment). Nvidia sits in the middle of this web. Read more

  • China AI momentum: Alibaba leads with a trillion-param model. Qwen3-Max launched; Alibaba said it will increase its ~$53B multi-year AI/cloud investment. Shares surged on the news. Read More

  • Macro/positioning: Fed cuts + “AI isn’t a bubble (yet)” takes persist, but strategists warn about over-investment risk. Expect chop; manage exposure. Read More

📈 Company & Stock Moves

  • Oracle (ORCL) — Cloud land-grab, part II. In talks with Meta for a $20B AI compute deal; follows last week’s WSJ report of a $300B OpenAI contract (Reuters write-up). High beta to AI demand, big upside if capacity gets filled. Read More

  • OpenAI / CoreWeave / Nvidia (NVDA) — New $6.5B CoreWeave contract with OpenAI; Nvidia’s hardware sits at the center of these capacity deals. Bullish for AI supply chain utilization. Read More

  • Alphabet (GOOGL) — Entered the $3T club on Sep 15; still screens comparatively “cheap” vs. peers on P/E. Not this week, but key context for mega-cap AI leadership. Read More

  • Alibaba (BABA) — Unveiled Qwen3-Max (>1T params) and signaled bigger AI capex; stock jumped on the announcements. China AI is not asleep. Read More

  • Intel (INTC) — New this week: Seeking strategic investments (Apple, TSMC) as part of a broader turnaround; context: Nvidia’s $5B stake was Sep 18 (just outside 7-day window). Read More

  • C3.ai (AI) — Fresh bearish note (2 days ago): revenue decline and leadership changes keep volatility high. Speculative only. Read More

⚠️ Market Sentiment

  • Over-investment watch: Jefferies’ Chris Wood warns the AI build-out risks a “massive overinvestment bust.” It’s not consensus, but you ignore it at your peril. The Economic Times

  • “Not a bubble… yet” takes: Powell flagged “fairly highly valued” equities; multiple strategists still see support for AI on earnings/cash-flow. Translation: selective, not spray-and-pray. Investopedia

📊 MoneyAmerica AI Watchlist

  • Alphabet (GOOGL) — AI everywhere (search, Gemini, cloud). Valuation still below some mega-cap peers; $3T milestone underscores durability. Reuters

  • Microsoft (MSFT) — Azure + OpenAI distribution machine; lag vs. NVDA YTD could be opportunity if Copilot/AI Server growth re-accelerates. Investopedia

  • Oracle (ORCL) — AI compute vendor with multi-year tailwinds if OpenAI/Meta capacity ramps; execution + power build-outs are the swing factors. Reuters

  • Nvidia (NVDA) — Still the infrastructure king; benefits from circular capacity deals (CoreWeave/OpenAI). Volatility ≠ thesis break. Reuters

  • Micron (MU) — AI servers gorge on HBM/HBM-adjacent memory; levered to data-center demand through the cycle. (Use as semi-beta with more manageable valuation vs. NVDA.) Investopedia

  • Broadcom (AVGO) — AI accelerators/custom silicon + networking; diversified cash-flow helps cushion downside. (Context from recent coverage; free sources limited this week.)

  • Palantir (PLTR) — Sticky gov + expanding commercial AI deployments; operational leverage is the tell. (Watch contract cadence vs. expectations.)

  • Stretch/Speculative bucket: C3.ai (AI) — Only for high-risk traders; deteriorating fundamentals keep risk elevated. simplywall.st

(High-risk traders may keep an eye on C3.ai (AI), but volatility and earnings weakness make it speculative.)

🧭 What to Watch Next Week

  • Capacity contracts: Any new disclosures around Oracle/OpenAI/Meta capacity (power, sites, delivery schedules). Reuters

  • China AI: Follow-through after Alibaba’s Qwen3-Max reveal; signs of Baidu/Tencent AI monetization vs. headlines. Reuters

  • Macro tape: If the “fairly highly valued” narrative bites again, AI-beta names will swing more. Size accordingly. Investopedia

💡 Bottom Line

AI is still the hottest trade in the market. But not every stock is created equal. Stick with mega-caps and infrastructure players for stability. Take smaller positions in SaaS names or pure plays only if you can stomach volatility.